Arguing is Fun

I really like debates. So I'm excited about the one tomorrow night between Bush and Kerry on foreign policy. Here's how I think it will go down.

-It's in Florida, so the coin flip for who talks first will be very important. If it's Bush, he'll start off by offering a prayer or something for the hurricane victims, or at least say they are in all of our hearts. Or something. I think people will buy it. Kerry, if he's smart, will say something like, "Amen to that," and not get mad that Bush thought of it first.

Basically, I think whoever mentions the hurricanes first will get the upper hand. Then, when they get to the actual debate:

-Kerry will focus on mistakes and missteps in Iraq. If he's smart, he'll revive his question about Vietnam: how do you ask a soldier to be the last man to die for a mistake? It's a powerful argument, and nicely plays up Kerry's Vietnam background without ramming it down our throats, which proved to be a mistake.

-Bush will argue that Kerry is flip-flopping, but would be smart not to dwell on that theme for too long since it's already familiar to voters. My guess is that he'll branch out from there and say what his spokesmen have been saying recently: Kerry has a lot of complaints, but he's short on new suggestions and optimism.

If each side starts with those solid arguments, this will be great. Bush can ask Kerry if he really thinks Iraq is worse off than it was before the war. Kerry can note that our optimism before September 11 was a big mistake, and that we need to prepare for the worst.

The best thing Kerry can do is knock Bush off script, which is nearly impossible because Bush is so good at sticking to the message. Kerry is terrible at sticking to the message, but is slightly better at talking extemporaneously -- as long as he can avoid all the long, sonorous Senate-talk. So the best strategy for Bush is to play it safe and hope Kerry buries himself with too much speechifying.