Sunday, October 31, 2004

Conventional Wisdom



If Bush wins Tuesday, he'll probably do it without Ohio, which no succesful Republican presidential candidate has ever lost. If Kerry wins, he'll do it without Missouri, which has voted with the winner in every presidential race since 1900, except when it went for Adlai Stevenson in 1956.

If Bush wins, he'll be the rare incumbent who comes through despite an approval rating that tends to hover below 50 percent. If Kerry wins, he'll be the first northerner and senator elected president since Kennedy.

If Bush wins, he'll do it despite the largest number of job losses of any president since Hoover, who lost. If Kerry wins, he'll be the first to unseat a sitting president in the middle of a war.

Whatever happens Tuesday, someone's conventional wisdom is going to be wrong.

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